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Why Blacks Keep Quiet About Obama
“Comedian Jon Stewart asked Obama, if elected, ‘Will you pull a bait and switch and enslave the white race?’ Kinda funny. Except that’s precisely the sentiment that underlies white race fear.” Read Kevin Gray’s compelling report in the new edition of our subscriber-only newsletter. PLUS Would the US politically exploit Myanmar’s killer cyclone? Would Laura Bush be the pitcher in this dirty game? You bet. Read Peter Lee’s savage dispatch. PLUS You breathe, you die. Jeffrey St Clair on L.A.’s Weapon of Mass Destruction. Get your copy today by subscribing online or calling 1-800-840-3683 Contributions to CounterPunch are tax-deductible. Click here to make a donation. If you find our site useful please: Subscribe Now! CounterPunch books and gear make great presents.Order CounterPunch By Email For Only $35 a Year !
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Today's Stories June 3, 2008 Paul Craig Roberts / June 2, 2008 Uri Avnery Nikolas Kozloff Allan J. Lichtman Malini Johar Schueller Robert Weissman Peter Morici Manuel Garcia, Jr. John Ross Ahmad Al-Akhras Website of the Day May 31 / June 1, 2008 Alexander Cockburn Jeffrey St. Clair Gary Leupp Stan Cox Rannie Amiri P. Sainath Binoy Kampmark Robert Fantina Seth Sandronsky Corporate Crime Reporter Anthony DiMaggio Karl Grossman Matt Reichel Paul Myron Hillier Andy Worthington David Yearsley Daniel Cassidy Charles Thomson Gary Corseri Wajahat Ali Ron Jacobs Poets' Basement Website of the Day
May 30, 2008 Bassam Aramin Andrew Cockburn Saul Landau Nikolas Kozloff Robert Sandels Dave Lindorff Martha Rosenberg Harvey Wasserman Doug Giebel Shaun Harkin Website of the Day May 29, 2008 Jeffrey St. Clair Nikolas Kozloff Col. Dan Smith Karl Grossman William S. Lind Robert Weissman Dave Lindorff David Macaray Chris Genovali Laura Carlsen Website of the Day May 28, 2008 Wajahat Ali Ralph Nader Brian McKenna Corporate Crime Reporter Brian Cloughley Eric Walberg Michael Dickinson Ijaz Khan Website of the Day May 27, 2008 Alexander Cockburn Greg Kafoury Jean Bricmont Tim Wise Ricardo Alarcón Stephen Soldz Andy Worthington Alan Singer Richard Neville Susie Day May 26, 2008 Uri Avnery Bill Quigley Col. Dan Smith Cindy Sheehan Marjorie Cohn Fred Gardner Raymond J. Lawrence Harvey Wasserman Moncia Benderman David Rovics Website of the Day May 24 / 25, 2008 Alexander Cockburn Jeffrey St. Clair Barbara Rose Johnston Nikolas Kozloff Adriana Kojeve Robert Fantina Dave Lindorff David Yearsley Nelson P. Valdés Kathleen M. Barry John Ross Allison Kilkenny Fred Gardner Elizabeth Schulte Daniel Gross Christopher Brauchli Richard Rhames Daniel Cassidy Poets' Basement Website of the Weekend
May 23, 2008 Paul Craig Roberts Alan Farago Conn Hallinan Mark Engler George Wuerthner Kamran Matin Sandy Boyer / Robert Weitzel Cindy Sheehan Liaquat Ali Khan Website of the Day
May 22, 2008 Vijay Prashad Joanne Mariner Sharon Smith Jeff Birkenstein Brendan McQuade Peter Morici Niranjan Ramakrishnan Dave Zirin Ron Jacobs Stephen Lendman Website of the Day May 21, 2008 Jeffrey St. Clair Nikolas Kozloff Alan Farago Dave Lindorff David Model Eric Walberg Franklin Lamb Kenneth Couesbouc Website of the Day
May 20, 2008 Ralph Nader Uri Avnery Patrick Irelan Ray McGovern David Macaray Chris Genovali Ibrahim Fawal Christopher Ketcham Andy Worthington Martha Rosenberg Website of the Day May 19, 2008 Saul Landau Paul Craig Roberts Brian McKenna Patrick Cockburn B. R. Gowani Dr. Trudy Bond Cindy Sheehan John Mohawk Remi Kanazi Robert Day Website of the Day May 17 / 18, 2008 Alexander Cockburn Tim Wise Andy Worthington Robert Fantina Karim Makdisi Harry Browne John Ross Dave Lindorff Robert Weissman Laray Polk David Yearsley Ron Jacobs Paul Quinnett Sam Bahour Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor Dr. Susan Block Kim Nicolini Jeremy Scahill Jeffrey St. Clair Poets' Basement
May 16, 2008 Stephen Soldz Jonathan Cook Paul Craig Roberts Christopher Brauchli James L. Secor Franklin Lamb Linn Washington, Jr. Dave Lindorff
May 15, 2008 Stan Cox Jeff Halper Greg Moses John Ross Ron Jacobs Binoy Kampmark Eve Spangler Martha Rosenberg Website of the Day May 14, 2008 Ismael Hossein-Zadeh Reza Fiyouzat Felice Pace Hamdan A. Yousuf / Dania S. Ahmed Robert Weitzel Ralph Nader Dave Lindorff Missy Comley Beattie Neve Gordon Dr. Susan Block Website of the Day May 13, 2008 David Rosen Alan Farago Saul Landau Saree Makdisi Paul Craig Roberts Andy Worthington Brother Bede Vincent Linda Mamoun David Macaray Website of the Day
May 12, 2008 St. Clair / Frank Ziga Vodovnik Gary Leupp Frankln Lamb Suzanne Baroud Martha Rosenberg Dave Zirin Carl Finamore Peter Morici Richard Rhames Website of the Day May 10 / 11, 2008 Alexander Cockburn Franklin Lamb Ciara Gilmartin Diane Farsetta Kent Paterson Alan Farago Rannie Amiri Patrick Irelan Robert Fantina Nikolas Kozloff George Ciccariello-Maher David Yearsley Ron Jacobs John Holt David Michael Green Ben Terrall Kim Nicolini Jeffrey St. Clair Poets' Basement
May 9, 2008 Franklin Lamb Andy Worthington Benjamin Dangl Mark A. Huddle David Macaray Dave Lindorff C.G. Estabrook Matt Kosko Robert Weissman Michael Dickinson Website of the Day May 8, 2008 Sharon Smith Saul Landau Laura Carlsen Binoy Kampmark Kenneth Couesbouc Liaquat Ali Khan Franklin Lamb Sen. Russ Feingold George Wuerthner Richard W. Behan Adam Federman Website of the Day
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June 3, 2008
"The Remorseless Algebra of a Deflationary Death Spiral”The Withering EconomyBy MIKE WHITNEY Look around. The evidence of a withering economy is everywhere. In "good times" consumers shun the canned meat aisle altogether, but no more. Today, Spam sales are soaring; grocery stores can't keep it on the shelves. Everyone is looking for cheaper ways to feed themselves and their families. The Labor Department. assures us that core-inflation is only 4 per cent, but everybody knows that’s a load of malarkey. Food prices are shooting up. Inflation is rampant and there's no end in sight. The dollar is closing in on the peso and working people are struggling just to get by. In Santa Barbara parking lots are being converted into hostels so that families that lost their homes in the subprime fiasco can sleep in their cars and not be hassled by the cops. The same is true in LA where tent cities have sprung up around the railroad yards to accommodate the growing number of people who've lost their jobs or can't afford to rent a room on service-industry wages. This is the great triumph of Reagan's free trade "trickle down" Voodoo economics; whole families living out of their cars waiting for the pawn shop to open. The pundits on the business channel are telling us that the "worst is over"; that the Force 5 hurricane in the financial markets has weakened to a squall. Don't believe it. The corporate bond market is still frozen, housing is in free fall, and the banking system is buckling from the overload of bad investments. The FDIC is even trying to lure former employees out of retirement to deal with the tsunami of bank failures set to touch down later in 2008. Corporate defaults are on the rise and and commercial real estate is crashing. "Commercial property prices in the US in February saw their sharpest decline since records began nearly 15 years ago as sources of finance for deals has dried up, according to data from Standard & Poor’s out yesterday. Sales of commercial properties were down 71 per cent in the first quarter compared with a year earlier." (Financial Times) Commercial real estate is following the same downward trajectory as residential housing. They're both headed for the bottom of the fish-tank. Any slump in commercial real estate will send unemployment skyrocketing while adding to the solvency problems facing the banks. Last week, Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney announced that:
Whitney has been one of the few consistently accurate analysts of the current market meltdown. The fate of the larger investment banks is just as uncertain as the smaller "depository" banks. Carlyle Group Chairman David Rubenstein summed it up like this last week, "US and European banks and financial institutions have enormous losses from bad loans they haven't yet recognized and may have a harder time wooing sovereign fund rescuers. Based on information I see, it will take at least a year before all losses are realized, and some financial institutions may fail. Many financial institutions aren't going to be able to survive as independent institutions." The banks and financial institutions have never been in worse shape. They've already written down $344 billion since the credit crisis began last August and they'll write down another $200 billion next year. By the time the crisis is over, they will have racked up an estimated $1 trillion in losses. That represents a $3 trillion contraction in loans to consumers and businesses. Also, these estimates don't take into account the losses of revenue from the slowdown in consumer spending, shrinking GDP, and business failures; all of which will wreak further havoc on the financial sector. The amount of stress on the banking system is unprecedented. The Fed is loaning out money hand-over-fist just to keep the scaffolding in place. Take a look at what is going on at the Fed's so-called "auction facilities" where the Fed is providing loans and US Treasuries for "unsellable" mortgage-backed junk and other toxic bonds. The numbers are staggering. According to the Seattle Times:
Another $225 billion! The ongoing scandal surrounding Libor (the interest rate that banks charge each other and which determines the rates on $3 trillion of financial products including mortgages) strongly suggests that the banks are lying about the true rate they are paying so the public doesn't find out how battered they really are. Bloomberg News: "Banks routinely misstated borrowing costs to the British Bankers' Association to avoid the perception they faced difficulty raising funds as credit markets seized up." Subprime problems have migrated from Wall Street to Main Street as credit trends appear to be getting worse. Consumers are maxed-out on their credit cards, student loans, mortgages and car loans. The lack of personal savings is not the result of a profligate lifestyle (as the right wing media claim) but 30 years of stagnant wages and class warfare waged via big business and the federal tax code. An article is this week's The Economist summarizes the disaster in housing in apocalyptic terms:
The country is undergoing a collapsing real estate market that surpasses the slide in the the Great Depression and former Fed-chief Alan Greenspan's book is still on the New York Times Best Seller list. How's that for irony? Regrettably, there's no sign of a bottom yet in housing. Some markets have already dropped by 30 per cent, costing the states (like California and Florida) billions in tax revenue and triggering a steep increase in foreclosures. In California, sales are not only down by roughly 50 per cent, but 40 per cent of new sales are sales of foreclosed homes. The pool of potential buyers has dried up. Now the vultures are circling and picking up homes for 50 cents on the dollar. The losses are enormous. If the downward trend continues, (as many now expect) and housing prices drop 30 per cent nationwide; the market will shed $6.5 trillion in aggregate value and lower household spending by $300 billion. That means GDP will shrink at least another full percentage point. The crisis in the financial markets won't be resolved until housing prices stabilize. That's why the Fed and Congress are scrambling to put together a plan (Hope Now) that will slow the rate of foreclosures. Trillions of dollars in complex bonds and mortgage-backed securities will continue to be downgraded until investors see that it is safe to "dip their toes in the water" again and reinvest in a (currently) moribund market. So far, Congress has made little headway in keeping homeowners from defaulting on their mortgages. Credit Suisse predicts that foreclosures will be somewhere north of 6.5 million homeowners over the next few years. It is the equivalent of Hurricane Katrina sweeping from one side of the country to the other. The next administration---whether it's McCain or Obama---will be forced to restore the Resolution Trust Corp., which was created in 1989 to dispose of assets of insolvent savings and loan banks. The RTC would create a government-owned management company that would buy distressed mortgage- backed securities from banks and liquidate them via auction. The state would pay less than full-value for the bonds (The Fed currently pays 85 per cent face-value on MBS) and then take a loss on their liquidation. According to Joseph Stiglitz in his book, Towards a New Paradigm in Monetary Economics, “the real reason behind the need of this company was to allow the US government to subsidize the banking sector in a way that wasn't very transparent and therefore avoid the possible resistance." There it is; a taxpayer-funded bailout looming on the horizon, possibly as soon as 2009. Ultimately, it is the only sure-fire way to stabilize the crumbling banking system and put a floor under housing prices. The effects on the dollar, however, will be very bad. Don't expect the greenback to survive as the world's "reserve currency". Those days are about over. The troubles in the financial markets will be with us for some time. The massive expansion of credit has created numerous equity bubbles that are unwinding at an unpredictable pace. Author James Howard Kunstler calls the present process "the remorseless algebra of a deflationary death spiral". That's about as close to a perfect description as imaginable. There's bound to be considerable disagreement about the origins of the bubble and who is to blame. Was it the Fed's "low interest " policy following the dot.com bust in 2000, or the lack of government regulation in the securitzation process, or was it just the natural corollary of a political system which invariably bows and scrapes to Wall Street? The real origin of the problem is rooted in the prevailing "trickle down" orthodoxy which opposes any increases in wages or benefits for working people. Henry Ford realized what today's captains of industry and finance refuse to accept; that if workers aren't adequately paid for their labor and wages do not keep pace with production then the economy cannot grow because consumers do not have the money to buy the things they make. It's just that simple. Greenspan and his ilk believed that they could prosecute the class war and make up the difference by relaxing lending standards, changing bankruptcy laws, and by creating a nearly endless array of exotic financial products that expanded credit. But shifting wealth from one class to another has its costs. By crushing the worker the Friedmanites have killed the golden goose. The world's most prosperous consumer society is in deep, deep distress. Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at: fergiewhitney@msn.com
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